Three good reasons to come to MobileDevCamp on Saturday

I’m giving a talk in MobileDevCamp Helsinki on this Saturday (Feb 23th 2009). MobileDevCamp is an event for people interested in innovating and developing on mobile phones. It is held at Vanha Ylioppilastalo, right in the city center of Helsinki.

There’s at least three good reasons to attend in addition to the fact that event is free of charge.

Android
First, Google’s Android Team just sent an Android Dev Phone 1 as a grand prize for the afternoon Hackathon event. Dev Phone 1 is a fully functional SIM unlocked phone running Android operation system. You can read more about the device from the Android web site. I’ll be in a jury who will give a prize to the best application presented at MobileDevCamp Hackathon.

Second, the day starts with a bunch of interesting talks. I’ll give my Platform = Stage – How to choose a mobile development platform? talk that I gave at Slush event in November. It’s a non-technical talk that tries to get you thinking about mobile platforms from the different points of view than just sold units of phones or technical possibilities of a specific platform. I’ll discuss about distribution models on different platforms and other facts that are crucial for your application’s success. I’ve updated the talk with a couple of new insights.

Other talks cover different platforms in more detail. I’m especially waiting a talk by Niklas Wahrman who have developed Asterope game for both Android and iPhone platforms.

Finally, there’s a BarCamp event after the longer talks. You can freely give a short presentation or a hands-on hacking session. I expect BarCamp to be both fun and useful.

I’m planning to give a short technical presentation targeted for novice and intermediated iPhone programmers. Talk is called “Leaks and Zombies” and it’s about memory management in iPhone programming. You might think that that’s the most boring topic ever, but anything that involves zombies can’t be boring! It should be useful too, it seems that even experienced programmers have trouble of getting iPhone’s memory management right if their background is in garbage collected languages. And if you don’t know why zombies are involved, you should come to listen.

Sign up to MobileDevCamp here.

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Is selling mobile applications a new business fad?

Selling iPhone apps is becoming a new business fad that people make fun of. It’s adopting a role of clown that an ad based model of free web services has held for a while.

However truth is that App Store is nothing short of success. In January Apple announced that there had been 500 million downloads from App Store. Let’s put this into perspective. There are about 17 million sold iPhones. Apple lumps iPod Touch sales together with other iPod sales, but estimates are that iPod Touch sales total 25 million, which means that there are about 40 million sold iPhone OS devices. Thus on average there are over 12 installed apps per device. That’s an astonishing number. On average on every iPhone and iPod Touch 12 applications have been installed just in 6 months.

How many installed applications a PC has on average?
I haven’t done my homework, but my guess is something between 0 and 1. Your guess?

How many sold games there are per a game console?
My guess: 5. Answer: about 6 over a 2 year period.

Heck, how many bookmarks is saved to browser’s bookmarks on average?
My guess: something between 5 and 50. Heavy users with thousands of bookmarks are likely to skew this a bit in a way that no heavy user of mobile applications can skew App Store stats.

Compared to these, 12 installed applications is a very vivid proof of a working ecosystem. Granted, most of the installed applications are free, but the number proves that App Store has connected application publishers and users like nothing before. And this on a mobile device. Just a year ago, a person who had installed a mobile application was either a geek or  16-year-old gamer with too much time on his hands.

The most successful mobile application store before App Store is probably GetJar.com, that has about 370 million free downloads since 2004. Other successful stores have hit about 100 million downloads each over several years. With a success of App Store, mobile applications market is quickly catching mobile advertising as a business model.

Nokia is rumoured to launch it’s own application store at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. Currently Nokia has a crappy Download! service on S60 phones and N-Gage market on selected models. If Nokia would unify these and duplicate ease of use of App Store for both publishers and users, it has a huge potential. Nokia sold over 100 million devices last quarter. Think if every new S40 and S60 model would have an application store baked in.

N-Gage Market has a silly restriction that games sold through it should be developed in native C++. On N-Gage Industry Insider a potential game developer is proudly challenged: “Think you’ve got what it takes?”. Pardon me, but who the fuck cares in which programming language a game or an application is developed if it’s fun or useful? Nokia has gone to great lengths to support several development environments on both S40 and S60 platforms: Java ME, Flash Lite, browser technologies with Web Runtime and S60 native C++ development. It should leverage this work. Think how many publishers and users Nokia could connect with a well-made appliation store that allows all these technologies to be used.

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iPod Touch – The Christmas present of 2008?

A short followup to my previous analysis of AdMob’s data. AdMob released a December 2008 report and it contains a fascinating data point: iPod Touch requests doubled overnight on Christmas. Worldwide there were 3.4 times more monthly requests and for example in UK requests grew to 4-fold compared to November. iPhone OS devices hold Top 2 positions in UK now. In November Nokia’s N95 was still the number 1 device in UK.

It would be interesting to see an analysis on reasons why people buy Touch. Do they buy iPod Touch first and foremost as a music device or do they see it as an internet device?

An updated graph of manufacturer shares is below. Nothing new there, Apple’s stellar raise of share continues.  It should be noted that AdMob has been running an iPhone focused campaign for advertisers, which is likely to skew stats towards iPhone. However they probably have business reasons for this. Maybe more ads are viewed and clicked on iPhone than on other platforms?

AdMob's Worldwide Handset Data

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Worldwide mobile internet usage stats: Nokia biggest but iPhone growing fast

There are precious few public numbers about actual internet usage of different mobile devices although this information is valuable for businesses developing mobile internet applications and web sites. For example many site owners have noticed iPhone’s importance and Google representative revealed shocking effect of this iPhone phenomenon, but there aren’t much public stats out there to prove it.

Fortunately, a mobile ad provider AdMob releases monthly reports that contain device statistics and other juicy tidbits of information about ads they have served. AdMob serves ads for over 6000 mobile web sites around the globe.

What is interesting is that this data is about real worldwide mobile internet usage. It’s not sales numbers of internet capable models that don’t really tell how people use their phones. Although it’s heavily skewed, it’s also not limited only to a specific geographic region or a single site. This kind of data is scarcely publicly available outside of big internet companies thus big kudos goes to AdMob for making it available.

iPhone is growing fast

I compiled the below graph of trends in manufacturer shares of mobile internet traffic from AdMob’s reports to investigate how iPhone fares currently. The graph gives further proof  of iPhone becoming a formidable player in mobile internet despite a lower amount of sold units than many competitors.

AdMob's Worldwide Handset Data

The real share of S60 3rd edition

Personally, I’m most interested in comparing different mobile operating systems and how people use internet on them. Unfortunately Symbian-based OSes are usually lumped together, although in a native development it’s a considerable development effort to support both S60 2nd edition and  S60 3rd edition phones. For this reason, I examined AdMob’s top device charts.

In a worldwide top 20 devices, there are three S60 2nd ed. devices. I knew that 5 year old Nokia 6600 had been a hit for several years in many countries, but I was surprised to see it still in top 20. All in all, S60 3rd ed devices account for 37% of Nokia devices in top 20. Using 40% as a crude estimate for 3rd ed. devices gives 13% share of worldwide mobile internet traffic is originating from S60 3rd ed. devices. That’s a very different impression than a quick look would give (In AdMob’s reports the overall share of Symbian of smartphone originated requests is 49%). It is also in line with illustrative math games that I gave in my Slush talk in last November.

If you study reports carefully, you can’t miss the small share that Windows Mobile has. According to July 08 report HTC devices account almost half of Windows Mobile usage. Using that as an estimate makes Windows Mobile’s share max. 4% of all traffic in November 08. That’s especially poor given that AdMob’s stats are skewed somewhat towards US market. This unimportance of Windows Mobile as a mobile platform was earlier pointed out and analyzed by Russell Buckley (via Tero Lehto).

It will be interesting to follow how Android fares during spring. November 08 report shows already 2% share in US traffic. Another interesting perspective is to keep eye on the importance of mobile web in Asian and Latin American countries. For example, I’ve personally witnessed Indonesians as heavy SMS users in Jaiku and they are also one of the biggest user groups in the virtual mobile world Mini Friday (the little brother of Habbo Hotel). AdMob’s October 08 report reveals that iPhone is a dominating player in two huge Latin American markets: Mexico (25.0%) and Brazil (31.8%).

Shortcomings of AdMob’s data

To understand how skewed AdMob’s data is it’s informative to inspect other changes in the graph. In May 2008, a big Indonesian advertiser joined AdMob network and we can see noticeable raise in Nokia’s share and a similar drop in BlackBerry maker RIM’s share. Indonesia is a strong market for Nokia (63.7% in Nov 08) and RIM is non-existent there. This just shows that AdMob network is still too small to give us a really representative sample.

Other fact worth noting is that Europe is clearly underrepresented in AdMob’s statistics. Following table, taken from November 08 report, shows geographic distribution of requests.  Africa on the other hand is overrepresented which is explained by AdMob’s strong foothold in South Africa.

North America 2,494,086,465 43.2%
Asia 2,010,290,536 34.8%
Western Europe 447,130,652 7.7%
Africa 390,011,181 6.8%
Eastern Europe 156,992,323 2.7%
Latin America 113,709,610 2.0%
Oceania 47,572,069 0.8%
Other (2) 111,435,390 1.9%
Total 5771228226 100.0%

Despite these shortcomings, I find AdMob’s data very valuable as it describes actual mobile internet usage. Let’s hope they keep publishing and improving it, after all it’s a great advertising strategy to offer this kind of valuable data for free when their main income is ad serving.

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Platform = Stage. How to choose a mobile development platform.

Yesterday I gave a presentation at Slush Helsinki conference. Slush Helsinki was a great gathering for startups – organized by startups. A big thanks to organizers for making it possible.

A topic of my talk was the current shift that is happening in mobile platforms and how developers and entrepreneurs should think about a choice of platform that they develop on. Developers are often excited about technical possibilities that enable us to do cool things. But I emphasized that we should think what kind of audience we can reach with our platform choice. Think about distribution mechanisms and the initial user experience that is dictated by platform. In the latter half of the talk, I explored mobile web as a platform and new possibilities that HTML 5 is going to bring to the table.

I also revealed the name of my new venture – Huikea. It’s way too early to share details, but if you want to hear about us later when we are ready to tell more, leave your email address on huikea.com.

Slides of the presentation are below.

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